The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: evidence from the Pacific

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although we estimate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion, patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or to the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data show a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and a need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision

A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?

Millions of people emigrate every year in search of better economic and social opportunities. Anecdotal evidence suggests that emigrants may have over-optimistic expectations about the incomes they can earn abroad, resulting in excessive migration pressure, and in disappointment amongst those who do migrate. Yet there is almost no statistical evidence on how accurately these emigrants predict the incomes that they will earn working abroad. In this paper we combine a natural emigration experiment with unique survey data on would-be emigrants’ probabilistic expectations about employment and incomes in the migration destination. Our procedure enables us to obtain moments and quantiles of the subjective distribution of expected earnings in the destination country. We find a significant underestimation of both unconditional and conditional labor earnings at all points in the distribution. This under-estimation appears driven in part by potential migrants placing too much weight on the negative employment experiences of some migrants, and by inaccurate information flows from extended family, who may be trying to moderate remittance demands by understating incomes

The Balance Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from the UK

This paper examines the sensitivity of investment to cash flow using a panel of UK firms in manufacturing with a view to shedding some light on the existence of a balance sheet channel or financial accelerator. In addition to examining the impact of cash flow in different subsamples based on company size or financial policy (dividend payouts, share issues and debt accumulation), we also investigate the extent to which investment becomes more sensitive to cash flow in periods of monetary tightness. To this end, we employ a monetary tightness indicator constructed for the UK using the narrative approach pioneered by Romer and Romer. The results provide some support for the view that UK firms show greater investment sensitivity to cash flow during periods of tight monetary policy.Financial Constraints; Balance Sheet Channel, Investment.

Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership.capital flows, transition economies, accession countries and EU membership

The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greee

This paper estimates the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for Greece. We calculate the effect directly, using sectoral national accounts data, which permits estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the tradeables and nontradeables sectors. Our results suggest that it is difficult to produce one estimate of the BS effect. Any particular estimate is contingent on the definition of the tradeables sector and the assumptions made about labour shares. Moreover, there is also evidence that the effect has been declining through time as Greek standards of living have caught up on those in the rest of the world and as the non-tradeables sector within Greece catches up with the tradeables.Balassa-Samuelson effect, inflation, productivity

Maximum aposteriori joint source/channel coding

A maximum aposteriori probability (MAP) approach to joint source/channel coder design is presented in this paper. This method attempts to explore a technique for designing joint source/channel codes, rather than ways of distributing bits between source coders and channel coders. For a nonideal source coder, MAP arguments are used to design a decoder which takes advantage of redundancy in the source coder output to perform error correction. Once the decoder is obtained, it is analyzed with the purpose of obtaining 'desirable properties' of the channel input sequence for improving overall system performance. Finally, an encoder design which incorporates these properties is proposed